Effects of climatic and non-climatic factors on the changing burden of water-borne diseases in Gorkha and Syangja districts of Gandaki Province.

Research Report.

SUMMARY:

Climate change is expected to increase the risk of water-borne diseases particularly diarrheal
diseases. This study is carried out to assess the effects of climate factors on the incidence of
diarrheal diseases of in Gorkha and Syangja district of Gandaki province using the retrospective
descriptive study design. The study utilized climatic data (Maximum, Minimum, Rainfall and RH)
and diarrheal incidence data from 2010-2020. The ethical approval to conduct this study was taken
from Ethical Review Board of the Nepal Health Research Council (NHRC).
The climatic factors (maximum, minimum, rainfall and RH) and diarrheal incidence of Gorkha
district was not positively associated. However, Positive association was found between rainfall
and diarrheal diseases in Gorkha and Syangja district respectively. overall 1mm increase in rainfall
increases diarrheal incidence by 0.12% (RR= 1.002, 95% CI=1.0008-1.002) in Gorkha district and
1mm increase in rainfall increases diarrheal incidence by 0.06% (RR= 1.0008, 95% CI =1.0001
1.0012) in Syangja district. Climatic factors such as minimum, maximum and relative humidity
were not significant predictors of diarrheal incidence in both Gorkha and Syangja district. The
Gorkha district annual maximum warming trend was decreasing i.e. - 0.1155 °C/year. and
minimum warming trend was increasing by 0.0514°C/year. The annual precipitation trend was
declining at -2.5938mm per year. The Syangja district annual trend of maximum and minimum
temperature was increasing by 0.0273°C/year and 0.0482 °C/year respectively. The annual rainfall
of Syangja district is in declining trend i.e. -0.8109mm/year. The rate of diarrheal incidence is in
increasing trend in both district, but Gorkha district reported higher number of diarrheal cases in
comparison to Syangja districts.
Out of 160 participants interview, 63.1% have suffered from the diarrheal diseases. Of the total
participants who suffered from the diseases about 72.3% have suffered at least 1-4 times from
diarrheal. Similarly, 64.4% of the participants says that microbes or pathogens also transmit the
diseases and 79.6% of the participants mention that contaminated food or beverages transmit
diarrhea diseases. Nearly 93.9% of participant’s mention frequent loose, water stool as a sign and
symptoms while 73.5% participants mention abdominal cramps and 72.7% says light headedness
or dizziness. 51.5% of the participant’s mention rise in temperature as a major influence factors in
the rise of the diarrhea diseases, where 22.7% of the participant’s mention decreases in precipitation increases the diarrheal cases and 18.2% participants says dry season also influence
the diarrhea diseases. Regarding the preventive measures about 87.9% of participants clean the
garbage while 65.9% follow proper sanitation measure and 65.6% participants also practice
personal behavior such as washing hand and keep oneself clean to prevent the disease. Only 67.5%
says they visit health institution when suffer from diseases and 75.6% of participants says diarrheal
can be easily prevented while 60.6% of the participants don’t know about the government
intervention plan in controlling water-borne diseases.
It can be concluded that diarrheal incidence is influenced by climatic factors. The knowledge and
perception level of the participants on climatic factors and diarrheal incidence, practices on
preventive measures, transmission of the diseases and government intervention plan was very low.
Therefore, massive awareness programs are urgently required to protect the health of the people
from diarrheal diseases in Gorkha and Syangja district of Gandaki Province.


Key words: Climate factors, diarrheal diseases, climate change